DeSantis called Trump “basically an incumbent,” although he tried to reduce his Iowa win margin. “Half the people wanted someone else,” DeSantis remarked. Trump had 51% with 99% of the vote, compared to DeSantis' 21.2% and Haley's 19.1%.
Trump supporters in Atkinson, New Hampshire, were waiting in the sleet and snow outside a country club Tuesday afternoon, hours before the former president's first rally of the final stretch. University of New Hampshire political specialist Dante Scala said Haley and DeSantis faced different problems.
Due to his time in Iowa, DeSantis has been “out of sight and out of mind” for most New Hampshire voters, the professor added. Scala said DeSantis must reintroduce himself and prove he is a force after finishing second in the caucuses. Haley, who sees New Hampshire as a catapult to her home state's primary, must act against Trump.
Scala stated “the day after the Iowa caucuses, there's this sense of inevitability around Donald Trump.” “Over the next seven days, Nikki Haley must puncture that feeling of inevitability, not just among Trump voters but among her own voters.
Haley missed a chance when ABC News canceled a debate on Thursday as it became evident only DeSantis would participate. Haley said she would only speak if Trump was there. Trump, who has avoided every GOP primary debate, has stated he will face a Republican only if they are polling close. Some New Hampshire polling before the Iowa caucuses show Haley is closer to Trump than she was in Iowa.
Haley and DeSantis' Iowa stances mirror their caucus support. Haley was the top candidate among Iowa's most anti-Trump Republicans, including those who believe the former president committed a crime in one of his outstanding criminal cases, according to AP VoteCast data from over 1,500 caucus attendees. Biden 2020 voters preferred her. Less than half of her Iowa fans voted for Trump in 2020, with the rest backing Biden, a third-party candidate, or staying home.
DeSantis did best among caucusgoers upset with Trump but who said they would vote for him in the general election. Most Iowa caucusgoers for Haley or DeSantis feel Trump as nominee will disappoint them. 2/3 of Haley's caucusgoers said they won't vote for Trump in the general election, unlike DeSantis' supporters.
Still, defeating Trump in New Hampshire would need either a greater anti-Trump turnout or convincing friendly individuals to switch allegiances. Trump supporter Otovic in Atkinson shows how tough that may be. She visited Haley early in the campaign but still supported Trump.
“Lovely girl,” she stated of the 51-year-old applicant. “Not sure she can lead the nation.” She trusts Trump to manage the economy and border immigration, which worry her most. She added Haley “kind of flip-flops a little bit,” whereas Trump is Trump. He's uncompromising.”
New Hampshire has become a two-party state in recent decades after being largely Republican. The governor and Legislature are Republican, while the congressional delegation is Democratic. Trump won both the 2016 and 2020 GOP primaries but lost the state in the general election.
As Trump earned barely a third of the vote in the Iowa suburbs, DeSantis and Haley may see an opening. Iowa suburbs are more educated and less religious than Trump's rural and small-town bastions. New Hampshire Republicans resemble Iowa suburbs